关键词: 钩虫； 时间序列模型； 自回归滑动平均模型； 江苏省

Abstract:

Objective To explore the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）to predict the infec? tion rates of hookworm in Jiangsu Province. Methods From 1990 to 2006，the infection rates of hookworm were used for a train? ing data set. As to obtain a stationary data set，the training data set was second?order differenced using the version SAS 9.0. The model parameters were screened by using the minimum information criterion. The ARIMA model was constructed to predict the in? fect rates of hookworm form 2007 to 2011. Results The time?series model ARIMA（1，2，0）was confirmed preliminarily. The model fitted well the training data set. The predictive infection rates were main accordance with the actual status of hookworm from 2007 to 2011，and the most minimum error was only 9.23%. Conclusion The model constructed has a good predictive effect and applied value for control of hookworm.

Key words: Hookworm； Time?series model； Autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）； Jiangsu Province