中国血吸虫病防治杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 469-.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2004—2020年安徽省血吸虫病流行趋势 Joinpoint回归分析 

高风华,丁宋军,张世清,汪天平*,何家昶,许晓娟,代波,刘婷   

  1. 安徽省血吸虫病防治研究所(安徽 合肥 230061)
  • 出版日期:2022-11-23 发布日期:2022-11-23
  • 作者简介:高风华,男,本科,副主任医师。研究方向:寄生虫病控制

Trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 based on Joinpoint regression analysis

GAO Feng⁃hua, DING Song⁃jun, ZHANG Shi⁃qing, WANG Tian⁃ping*, HE Jia⁃chang, XU Xiao⁃juan, DAI Bo, LIU Ting   

  1. Anhui Provincial Institute of Schistosomiasis Control, Hefei, Anhui 230061, China
  • Online:2022-11-23 Published:2022-11-23

摘要: 目的 分析2004—2020年安徽省血吸虫病疫情变化趋势,为制定该省消除血吸虫病策略提供参考依据。 方法 收集2004—2020年安徽省血吸虫病疫情数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型对血吸虫病疫情趋势变化进行分析。以平均年度变化百分比(annual average percent change, AAPC)评价人、牛和钉螺血吸虫感染变化趋势,并应用相关分析法探究人群血吸虫感染率、牛血吸虫感染率和感染性钉螺密度变化趋势间的相关性。结果 2004—2020年,安徽省人群血吸虫感染率持续下降,年均下降14.8%[(AAPC = -14.8%,95%置信区间(confidential interval, CI):(-18.9%,-10.5%),P < 0.01)]。2004—2015年,安徽省牛血吸虫感染率持续下降 [AAPC = -31.3%,95% CI:(-35.1%,-27.2%),P < 0.01)], 2016—2020年连续5年感染率为0。2004—2020年,安徽省有螺面积年均下降0.7% [AAPC = -0.7%,95% CI:(-1.2%,0.3%),P < 0.05)],活螺密度年均下降9.2% [AAPC = -9.2%,95% CI:(-18.3%,1.0%),P = 0.08];2004—2012年感染性钉螺密度持续下降 [AAPC = -35.6%,95% CI:(-49.2%, -18.3%),P < 0.01], 2013—2020年均未发现感染性钉螺。2004—2020年,安徽省人群血吸虫感染率和牛感染率、人群血吸虫感染率和感染性钉螺密度、牛血吸虫感染率和感染性钉螺密度间均具有显著相关性(r = 0.959、0.823、0.902, P均< 0.01)。 结论 2004—2020年安徽省人、牛、钉螺血吸虫感染率均呈下降趋势,且三者间显著相关;有螺面积下降幅度较小、钉螺分布范围仍较广,血吸虫病传播风险依然存在,仍需加强精准防控。

关键词: 血吸虫病, 流行趋势, Joinpoint 回归分析, 安徽省

Abstract: Objective To investigate the changing trends in the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province. Methods The epidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 were collected, and the trends in the endemic status of schistosomiasis were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model. The trends in the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans, bovines and Oncomelania hupensis were measured in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020 using average annual percent change (AAPC), and the correlations among the changing trends in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans, bovines and O. hupensis snail status were evaluated using Pearson correlation analysis. Results The prevalence of S. japonicum human infections continued to decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, with an annual mean decline of 14.8% [AAPC = -14.8%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (-18.9%, -10.5%), P < 0.01]. The prevalence of S. japonicum infections continued to decline in bovines in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2015 [AAPC = -31.3%, 95% CI: (-35.1%, -37.2%), P < 0.01], and was 0 for 5 successive years from 2016 to 2020. During the period from 2004 to 2020, there was an annual mean decline of 0.7% in areas of snail habitats [AAPC = -0.7%, 95% CI: (-1.2%, 0.3%), P < 0.05] and an annual mean decline of 9.2% in the density of living snails [AAPC = -9.2%, 95% CI: (-18.3%, 1.0%), P = 0.08] in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and an annual mean decline of 35.6% was found in the density of S. japonicum⁃infected snails [AAPC = -35.6%, 95% CI: (-49.2%, -18.3%), P < 0.01] from 2004 to 2012, with no infected snails detected in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2020. There were significant correlations in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections between humans and bovines (r = 0.959, P < 0.01), between the prevalence of S. japonicum human infections and the density of S. japonicum⁃infected snails (r = 0.823, P < 0.01) and between the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in bovines and the density of S. japonicum⁃infected snails (r = 0.902, P < 0.01). Conclusions The prevalence of S. japonicum infections appeared a decline in humans, bovines and O. hupensis in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2020, and significant correlations were found among the changing trends in the prevalence of S. japonicum human infections, the prevalence of S. japonicum bovine infections and the density of S. japonicum⁃infected O. hupensis snails. Because of a minor decline in the area of snail habitats and widespread distribution of O. hupensis, however, there is still a risk of schistosomiasis transmission, and precision control for schistosomiasis remains to be reinforced in Anhui Province.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Epidemiological trend, Joinpoint regression analysis, Anhui Province

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