Abstract: Objective　To construct a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system in Wuhan City and preliminary evaluate its application effect, so as to promote the rational allocation of schistosomiasis control resources and accelerate the progress towards schistosomiasis elimination. Methods　The schistosomiasis risk assessment indicators were collected through referring schistosomiasis surveillance data of Wuhan City from 2014 to 2020, literature review and expert interviews. Indicators within each criterion and sub⁃criterion were screened using the Delphi method, and a hierarchical structure model was created based on analytic hierarchy process. Quantitative assignment of each indicator was conducted according to relative importance, and the weight and combination weight of each criterion were calculated in each analytic hierarchy framework to create a schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system, which was used for the schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment in 12 national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Wuhan City. Results　A three⁃level schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system was preliminarily constructed, which included a target layer, 5 criterion layers and 21 sub⁃criterion layers. Of all indicators in the criterion layer, transmission route had the highest weight (0.433), followed by source of Schistosoma japonicum infection (0.294); and among all indicators in the sub⁃criterion layer, S. japonicum infection in Oncomelania hupensis and sentinel mice had the highest combination weight (0.125), followed by prevalence of S. japonicum infection in humans (0.091) and bovines (0.053), snail control by chemical treatment (0.049), positive rate of inquiry examinations (0.048), allocation of schistosomiasis control professionals (0.045), and areas of submerged snail⁃infested settings (0.041). Of the 12 national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Wuhan City, there were 5 sites with weights of > 0.8, 4 sites with weights of 0.6 to 0.8, and 3 sites with weights of < 0.6 in 2020. Conclusion　A schistosomiasis transmission risk assessment system has been constructed based on analytic hierarchy process in Wuhan City, which may provide a evidence⁃based basis for health resource allocation and decision⁃making for schistosomiasis control. 　

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Analytic hierarchy process, Risk assessment, Wuhan City

摘要： 目的　构建武汉市血吸虫病传播风险评估体系并初步评价其应用效果，以促进血吸虫病防控资源合理分配、加快推进血吸虫病消除进程。方法　查阅2014—2020年武汉市血吸虫病监测资料，并通过文献检索和专家访谈等方式收集血吸虫病风险评估指标，以德尔菲法评分筛选指标纳入准则层和次准则层，以层次分析法（analytic hierarchy process，AHP）构建层次结构模型，根据相对重要程度对各级指标进行定量赋值，计算各层权重和组合权重，建立血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系，并应用于武汉市12个国家血吸虫病监测点传播风险评估。结果　初步构建了包括1个目标层、5个准则层指标、22个次准则层指标的武汉市血吸虫病传播风险三级指标评估体系。准则层指标中，传播途径权重最高（0.433），传染源次之（0.294）；次准则层指标中，钉螺和哨鼠感染组合权重最高（0.125），人、畜血吸虫感染现状（0.091和0.053）、药物灭螺实施情况（0.049）、询检阳性率（0.048）、血吸虫病防治人员配置（0.045）、水淹钉螺面积（0.041）等指标组合权重较大。2020年武汉市12个国家血吸虫病监测点血吸虫病传播风险综合评分总排序权值中，5个> 0.8、4个在0.6 ~ 0.8、3个< 0.6。结论　本研究基于AHP法构建了以传播途径为主、传染源次之的武汉市血吸虫病传播风险评估体系，可望为今后血吸虫病防治卫生资源配置和防控决策提供循证依据。

关键词: 血吸虫病, 层次分析法, 传播风险, 武汉市