Abstract: Objective　To investigate the current distribution of ticks and predict the suitable habitats of ticks in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2017, so as to provide insights into tick control and management of tick⁃borne diseases in these areas. Methods　All publications pertaining to tick and pathogen distribution in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration were retrieved, and the geographical location of tick distribution was extracted. The effects of 19 climatic factors on the distribution of ticks were examined using the jackknife method, including the mean temperature of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, mean temperature of the driest quarter, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the driest month, minimal temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, mean daily temperature range, precipitation seasonality, annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest quarter, isothermality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter. The distribution of ticks was analyzed in 2020 using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the potential suitable habitats of ticks were predicted in 2070 using the MaxEnt model based on climatic data. Results　A total of 380 Chinese and English literatures were retrieved, and 148 tick distribution sites were extracted, with 135 sites included in the subsequent analysis. There were 7 genera (Haemaphysalis, Rhipicephalus, Ixodes, Dermacentor, Boophilus, Hyalomma and Amblyomma) and 27 species of ticks detected in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The climatic factors affecting the distribution of ticks in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration mainly included the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the precipitation of the coldest quarter, with 26.1% and 23.6% contributions to tick distributions. The high⁃, medium⁃ and low⁃suitable habitats of ticks were 20 337.08, 40 017.38 km2 and 74 931.43 km2 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2020, respectively. The climate changes led to south expansion of the suitable habitats of ticks in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2070, and the total areas of suitable habitats of ticks was predicted to increase by 18 100 km2. In addition, the high⁃, medium⁃ and low⁃suitable habitats of ticks were predicted to increase to 24 317.84, 45 283.02 km2 and 83 766.38 km2 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2070, respectively. Conclusions　Multiple tick species are widespread in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, and the future climate changes may lead to expansion of tick distribution in these areas.

Key words: Tick, Climatic factor, Maximum entropy model, Suitable habitat, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

摘要： 目的　了解目前长三角城市群蜱媒分布，并对2070年该地区蜱媒适生区进行预测，为该地区蜱媒控制和蜱传疾病防治提供科学依据。方法　检索国内外公开发表的有关长三角城市群蜱媒及病原体分布的文献，提取蜱媒分布地理位置信息，采用刀切法分析最湿季平均温度、最冷季降水量、最干季平均温度、最热月最高温度、最干月降水量、最冷月最低温度、年降水量、平均日间温度范围、降水量季节变化、温度年度范围、温度季节性、年均温度、最暖季平均温度、最湿季降水量、等温性、最冷季平均温度、最湿月降水量、最干季降水量和最暖季降水量等19种气候因子对蜱媒分布的影响。采用最大熵模型分析2020年该地区蜱媒分布，并结合气候因子对2070年蜱媒适生区变化进行预测。结果　共检索中英文文献380篇，累计提取蜱媒分布点148个，并筛选出135个分布点进行研究。长三角城市群存在包括血蜱、扇头蜱、硬蜱、革蜱、牛蜱、璃眼蜱、花蜱在内的7属27种蜱。影响长三角城市群蜱媒分布的气候因子主要为最湿季平均温度和最冷季降水量，其贡献率分别为26.1%和23.6%。2020年，长三角城市群蜱媒高、中、低适生区面积分别为20 337.08、40 017.38、74 931.43 km2。受气候变化影响，2070年蜱媒适生区呈向南部扩大趋势，适生区总面积将增加1.81万km2，高、中、低适生区面积分别扩大至24 317.84、45 283.02、83 766.38 km2。结论　长三角城市群蜱媒种类繁多、分布广泛，未来气候变化可能导致该地区蜱媒分布区域扩大。　

关键词: 蜱, 气候因子, 最大熵模型, 适生区, 长三角城市群