关键词: 输入性疟疾, 就医延迟, 机器学习, BP神经网络模型, logistic回归模型, 风险预测模型, 江苏省

Abstract: Objective　To create risk predictive models of healthcare⁃seeking delay among imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province based on machine learning algorithms, so as to provide insights into early identification of imported malaria cases in Jiangsu Province. Methods　Case investigation, first symptoms and time of initial diagnosis of imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province in 2019 were captured from Infectious Disease Report Information Management System and Parasitic Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The risk predictive models of healthcare⁃seeking delay among imported malaria patients were created with the back propagation (BP) neural network model, logistic regression model, random forest model and Bayesian model using thirteen factors as independent variables, including occupation, species of malaria parasite, main clinical manifestations, presence of complications, severity of disease, age, duration of residing abroad, frequency of malaria parasite infections abroad, incubation period, level of institution at initial diagnosis, country of origin, number of individuals travelling with patients and way to go abroad, and time of healthcare⁃seeking delay as a dependent variable. Logistic regression model was visualized using a nomogram, and the nomogram was evaluated using calibration curves. In addition, the efficiency of the four models for prediction of risk of healthcare⁃seeking delay among imported malaria patients was evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC). The importance of each characteristic was quantified and attributed by using SHAP to examine the positive and negative effects of the value of each characteristic on the predictive efficiency. Results　A total of 244 imported malaria patients were enrolled, including 100 cases (40.98%) with the duration from onset of first symptoms to time of initial diagnosis that exceeded 24 hours. Logistic regression analysis identified a history of malaria parasite infection [odds ratio (OR) = 3.075, 95% confidential interval (CI): (1.597, 5.923)], long incubation period [OR = 1.010, 95% CI: (1.001, 1.018)] and seeking healthcare in provincial or municipal medical facilities [OR = 12.550, 95% CI: (1.158, 135.963)] as risk factors for delay in seeking healthcare among imported malaria cases. BP neural network modeling showed that duration of residing abroad, incubation period and age posed great impacts on delay in healthcare⁃seek among imported malaria patients. Random forest modeling showed that the top five factors with the greatest impact on healthcare⁃seeking delay included main clinical manifestations, the way to go abroad, incubation period, duration of residing abroad and age among imported malaria patients, and Bayesian modeling revealed that the top five factors affecting healthcare⁃seeking delay among imported malaria patients included level of institutions at initial diagnosis, age, country of origin, history of malaria parasite infection and individuals travelling with imported malaria patients. ROC curve analysis showed higher overall performance of the BP neural network model and the logistic regression model for prediction of the risk of healthcare⁃seeking delay among imported malaria patients (Z = 2.700 to 4.641, all P values < 0.01), with no statistically significant difference in the AUC among four models (Z = 1.209, P > 0.05). The sensitivity (71.00%) and Youden index (43.92%) of the logistic regression model was higher than those of the BP neural network (63.00% and 36.61%, respectively), and the specificity of the BP neural network model (73.61%) was higher than that of the logistic regression model (72.92%). Conclusions　Imported malaria cases with long duration of residing abroad, a history of malaria parasite infection, long incubation period, advanced age and seeking healthcare in provincial or municipal medical institutions have a high likelihood of delay in healthcare⁃seeking in Jiangsu Province. The models created based on the logistic regression and BP neural network show a high efficiency for prediction of the risk of healthcare⁃seeking among imported malaria patients in Jiangsu Province, which may provide insights into health management of imported malaria patients.

Key words: Imported malaria, Healthcare?seeking delay, Machine learning, BP neural network model, Logistic regression model, Risk predictive model, Jiangsu Province