关键词: 钉螺, 气候变化, 脆弱性评估, 生存能力, biomod2集成模型, 江西省

Abstract: Objective　To assess the survival vulnerability of Oncomelania hupensis in Jiangxi Province under future climate scenarios, and to identify low⁃vulnerability areas for its survival in this province. Methods　Village⁃level O. hupensis snail survey and O. hupensis snail control with chemical treatments in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2024 were captured from the Parasitic Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Climatic data were primarily sourced from the Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform, Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn/), including annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, annual accumulated temperature above 10 ℃, annual accumulated temperature above 0 ℃, annual maximum temperature, annual minimum temperature, and annual average relative humidity, and nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from the WorldClim website (https://www.worldclim.org/), including mean diurnal range, isothermality, temperature seasonality, and so on. Elevation and normalized difference vegetation index were catprued from the Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform, Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn/), and distance to rivers was downloaded from the WorldPop website (http://www.worldpop.org), and land use and land cover (LULC) data were downloaded from the Big Earth Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://data.casearth.cn/), and nature reserve data were obtained from the China Nature Reserve Specimen Resource Sharing Platform (http://www.papc.cn/). Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Beijing Climate Center⁃Climate System Model version 2⁃Medium Resolution (BCC⁃CSM2⁃MR) global climate model were employed as future climate scenarios, including SSP126, SSP245, SSP585, and the biomod2 ensemble model in R package was used to simulate suitable habitats for O. hupensis snails in Jiangxi Province in 2050 and 2070 under these scenarios. A snail survival vulnerability index was constructed based on the area of suitable snail habitats, area covered by snail control through chemical treatment, area covered by nature reserves, and changes in snail habitat fragmentation, and a map of snail survival vulnerability distribution was plotted. Results　The real area of snail habitats ranged from 78 486.76 to 85 309.47 hm2, and the area of snail control with chemical treatment ranged from 10 138.98 to 13 240.16 hm2 in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2024. There were 429 to 531 villages detected with snails during the nine⁃year period, and the number of actually snail⁃infested villages ranged from 645 to 686. A total of 818 snail⁃present points and 1 996 snail⁃absent points were obtained from snail survey records. The best performance of the biomod2 ensemble model was achieved if a weighted mean approach was used as the ensemble strategy, with a true skill statistic value of 0.799 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.957, and modeling identified annual average relative humidity and annual average precipitation as two most influencing climatic variables for snail distribution. Relative to the current areas of suitable snail habitats under present climate conditions, the area of suitable snail habitats was projected to expand by 24.49% to 46.28% in Jiangxi Province under future climate scenarios, and the proportion of nature reserves areas in the areas of suitable snail habitats was projected to decrease slightly from the current 2.77% to approximately 2.52%, while the proportion of areas of snail control through chemical treatment in areas of suitable snail habitats varied from 0.64% to 19.57%, and the percentage of changes in snail habitat fragmentation ranged from 3.86% to 12.23%. Based on these four indicators, the snail survival vulnerability index was estimated to range from –1.96 to 0.62 in Jiangxi Province. The arithmetic mean of the snail survival vulnerability index differed under three SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585), with the highest mean value (–0.69) in 2070 under SSP126, and the lowest mean value (–0.78) in 2070 under SSP585.  Conclusions　The snail survival vulnerability index ranges from –1.96 to 0.62 in Jiangxi Province under future climate scenarios, and the suitable habitats for O. hupensis snails appear an overall tendency towards expansion. Low⁃vulnerability snail habitats are mainly distributed along the shores of Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River in Jiangxi Province, partially overlapping with nature reserves. Intensified surveillance of O. hupensis snails is recommended in these areas in the future. 

Key words: Oncomelania hupensis, Climate change, Vulnerability assessment, Survival capacity, biomod2 ensemble model, Jiangxi Province