自然灾害后血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系的构建

中国血吸虫病防治杂志（中英文） ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 60-68.

自然灾害后血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系的构建

尚婧晔1，俞铖航2，吴子松1，蒙先洪1，徐慧蓉3，王朝富4，郑彬2，李石柱2*，刘阳1*

1 四川省疾病预防控制中心（四川成都 610041）；2 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所（国家热带病研究中心）、国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室、世界卫生组织热带病合作中心、科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心（上海 200025）；3 四川省蒲江县疾病预防控制中心；4 四川省芦山县疾病预防控制中心

出版日期:2026-02-25 发布日期:2026-04-10
通讯作者: 李石柱 lisz@chinacdc.cn，刘阳 liuyangcdc@163.com
作者简介:尚婧晔，女，硕士，副主任技师。研究方向：寄生虫病防控与研究
基金资助:
四川省科技计划（2024YFFK0194）

Construction of an index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters

SHANG Jingye1, YU Chenghang2, WU Zisong1, MENG Xianhong1, XU Huirong3, WANG Chaofu4, ZHENG Bin2, LI Shizhu2*, LIU Yang1*

1 Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China; 2 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasites and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200025, China; 3 Pujiang County Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Sichuan Province, China; 4 Lushan County Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Sichuan Province, China

Online:2026-02-25 Published:2026-04-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的　构建暴雨、洪涝、地震、泥石流、滑坡等自然灾害后血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系，为灾后快速识别传播风险、制定针对性防控策略提供科学依据。方法　通过文献检索、头脑风暴法和专题小组讨论，初步拟定自然灾害后血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系框架。采用德尔菲法，通过函询的方式进行两轮专家咨询。根据专家咨询结果，对指标体系进行调整，并评价专家积极程度、专家权威程度、专家认可程度及专家意见一致性，采用层次分析法计算各指标权重。结果　共有18名专家参与咨询。两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为100.00%和94.44%，权威系数分别为0.92和0.94，指标重要性、合理性和可操作性评分的协调系数分别为0.209、0.185、0.222和0.407、0.214、0.257，一致性检验均有统计学意义（[χ2] = 246.771～505.278，P均< 0.001）。经过两轮专家咨询，最终形成包括6个一级指标、15个二级指标和49个三级指标的评估体系。一级指标中，“受灾情况”、“既往疫情”、“卫生保障”、“响应能力”和“应急恢复”权重最高，均为18.18%。二级指标中，“动物感染”、“钉螺感染”、“医疗救治”权重最高，均为7.35%。三级指标中，“是否发现病人”、“是否检出阳性野粪”、“是否检出感染性钉螺”、“是否储备血吸虫病诊断、检测试剂及耗材”、“是否储备人畜血吸虫病治疗药物”、“是否储备灭蚴药物”、“是否定期开展血吸虫病监测”、“是否发现风险并及时处置”、“是否可以正常提供诊疗服务”和“灾后是否开展血吸虫病监测”10项指标权重最高，均为2.40%。结论　本研究构建的自然灾害后血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系具有科学性、系统性和可操作性，可为灾后快速识别血吸虫病传播风险、制定针对性防控策略及优化资源配置提供科学参考。

关键词: 血吸虫病, 自然灾害, 风险评估, 指标体系

Abstract: Objective　To construct an index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters such as rainstorms, floods, earthquakes, mudslides, and landslides, so as to provide insights into rapid identification of schistosomiasis transmission risk post⁃disasters and formulation of targeted schistosomiasis control strategies. Methods　An initial framework for the index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters was drafted through literature review, brainstorming, and focus group discussions. Two rounds of expert correspondence consultations were conducted using the Delphi method to refine and finalize the system, and the degrees of expert activeness, authority and endorsement, and consensus were evaluated. In addition, the weights of each index were calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Results　A total of 18 experts participated in the consultation. The expert positive coefficients were 100.00% and 94.44% for two rounds of consultations, with authority coefficients of 0.92 and 0.94, respectively. The coefficients of coordination on the index importance, rationality and operability were 0.209, 0.185, 0.222 and 0.407, 0.214, 0.257 for two rounds of consultations, respectively, and all consistency tests were statistically significant ([χ2] = 246.771 to 505.278, all P values < 0.001). Following two rounds of expert consultations, an index system consisting of 6 first⁃level indicators, 15 second⁃level indicators, and 49 third⁃level indicators was ultimately constructed. In terms of first⁃level indicators, "disaster situation", "previous epidemics", "healthcare guarantee", "response capacity" and "emergency recovery" had the highest weights, each at 18.18%. Regarding second⁃level indicators, "Schistosoma japonicum infections in animals", "S. japonicum infections in snails" and "medical treatment" had the highest weights, each at 7.35%. In terms of third⁃level indicators, ten items had the highest weights, including "identification of schistosomiasis cases", "detection of S. japonicum infections in wild feces", "detection of S. japonicum infections in snails", "reserves of schistosomiasis diagnostic/testing reagents and consumables", "reserves of chemotherapy agents for human and animal schistosomiasis", "reserves of cercariacides", "periodical surveillance on schistosomiasis", "identification of schistosomiasis transmission risk and timely response", "normal provision of diagnosis and treatment services" and "post⁃disaster schistosomiasis surveillance", each at 2.40%. Conclusion　A scientific, systematic, and practical index system has been constructed for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters, which may provide insights into rapid post⁃disaster identification of schistosomiasis transmission risk, formulation of targeted schistosomiasis control strategies and optimization of resource allocation.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Natural disaster, Risk assessment, Index system

中图分类号:

R532.21

尚婧晔, 俞铖航, 吴子松, 蒙先洪, 徐慧蓉, 王朝富, 郑彬, 李石柱, 刘阳. 自然灾害后血吸虫病传播风险评估指标体系的构建[J]. 中国血吸虫病防治杂志（中英文）, 2026, 38(1): 60-68.

SHANG Jingye, YU Chenghang, WU Zisong, MENG Xianhong, XU Huirong, WANG Chaofu, ZHENG Bin, LI Shizhu, LIU Yang. Construction of an index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters[J]. Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control, 2026, 38(1): 60-68.

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