关键词: 血吸虫病, 监测预警, 指标体系, 德尔菲法, 长江流域

Abstract: Objective　To establish a surveillance and early warning index system for schistosomiasis transmission risk along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, so as to provide insights into creation of a sensitive and highly efficient surveillance and early warning system for schistosomiasis. Methods　National and international publications, documents, laws and regulations pertaining to schistosomiasis control were retrieved with keywords including schistosomiasis, surveillance, early warning and control interventions from 2008 to 2022, and a thematic panel discussion was held to preliminarily construct surveillance and early warning index system for schistosomiasis transmission risk along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. The index system was then comprehensively scored and screened using the Delphi method, and the weight of each index was determined using analytic hierarchy process and the modified proportional allocation method. In addition, the credibility of the Delphi method was evaluated using positive coefficient, authority coefficient, degree of concentration and degree of coordination of experts. Results　Following two rounds of expert consultation, a surveillance and early warning index system for schistosomiasis transmission risk in endemic areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin was preliminarily constructed, including 3 primary indicators, 9 secondary indicators and 41 tertiary indicators. The normalized weights of primary indicators epidemics, natural and social factors and comprehensive control were 0.639 8, 0.145 6 and 0.214 6, respectively, and among all secondary indicators, snail status (0.321 3) and schistosomiasis prevalence (0.318 5) had the highest combined weights, while social factors had the lowest combined weight (0.030 4). Of all tertiary indicators, human egg⁃positive rate (0.041 9), number of acute schistosomiasis cases (0.041 5), number of stool⁃positive bovine and sheep (0.041 1), and prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in free⁃ranging livestock (0.041 1) had the highest combined weights. During two rounds of consultation, the positive coefficient of experts was both 100%, and the authority coefficient was both 0.9 and greater, while the coordination coefficients were 0.338 to 0.441 and 0.426 to 0.565 ([χ2] = 22.875 to 216.524, both P values < 0.05). Conclusions　The established surveillance and early warning index system for schistosomiasis transmission risk along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is of great scientific values and authority, which may provide insights into construction of the sensitive and highly efficient surveillance and early warning system for schistosomiasis in the context of low prevalence and low intensity of infection in China.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Surveillance and early warning, Index system, Delphi method, Yangtze River basin