Chin J Schisto Control ›› 2006, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (3): 182-.

### Index of air temperature for predicting the distribution of On- comelama snails

Peng Wenxiang, Zhang Zhijie, Zhou Yibiao, Zhuang Jianlin, Zheng Yingjie, Jiang Qingwu

1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan Universi- ty, Shanghai 200032, China
• Published:2006-06-15

### 基于空间分析预测钉螺分布的气温指标研究

1. 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室(上海 200032)
• 通讯作者: 姜庆五
• 作者简介:彭文祥（1966-）．男|博士|高级工程师。研究方向：流行病学与卫生信息学
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金重大项目(30590374)、“十五”国家科技攻关项目(2004BA718804)

Abstract:

Objective To study the quantitative relationship between the air temperature and distribution of Oncomelania snails, in order to provide theoretical foundation for understanding the impact of global climate changes and the South-North Water Transfer Project on the distribution of Oncomelania snails. Methods The data of the mean lowest air temperature in a year, mean lowest air temperature in January, mean air temperature in a year, mean air temperature in January and mean highest air temperature in a year were collected, matching the air temperature according to the 1 km's grid. The spatial analysis of the air temperature and the distributional map of schistosomiasis in China was studied by using the GIS. The degree of their agreement was also studied. Results 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean lowest air temperature in many years was (4. 3-18.1 °C) in the area of Oncomelaiu'a snail's distribution, 95% CI of the mean lowest air temperature in January of many years was (-4. 6-9. 2 °C), 95% CI of the mean air temperature in many years was (9. 4- 21. 1 °C), 95% CI of the mean air temperature in January of many years was ( 0. 9 - 12.4 °C), 95% CI of the mean highest air temperature in many years was(16. 2- 25. 6 °C). The degree of agreement between the mean air temperature in January of many years and Oncolnelania snail's distribution was the best. Conclusion The mean air temperature in January of many years is the better index for predicting the distribution of. Oncomelania snails.

CLC Number: