• 论著 •

我国全沟硬蜱适生区预测

1. 1 潍坊医学院公共卫生学院（潍坊 261053）；2 胜利油田中心医院；3 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所
• 出版日期:2021-04-30 发布日期:2021-04-30
• 作者简介:马奔，男，硕士研究生。研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（81902095）；山东省自然科学基金（ZR2019MH093）；科技基础资源调查专项（2017FY101203）；卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室开放研究课题（WSBKFKT?201804）；山东省高等学校青创人才引育计划 (2019?6?156)；上海市第五轮公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科项目（GWV?10.1?XK13）

Prediction of suitable habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in China

MA Ben1, MA Xiao-Yu2, ZHANG Yi3, CHEN Hui-Bo1, WANG Qiang1*, LI Lan-Hua1*

1. 1 School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, China; 2 Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital, China; 3 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China
• Online:2021-04-30 Published:2021-04-30

Abstract: Objective　To evaluate the effects of environmental factors the distribution of Ixodes persulcatus, and to predict the future suitable habitats of I. persulcatus in China. Methods　The known distribution sites of I. persulcatus in China were captured from national and international published literatures. The effects of 14 environmental factors on the distribution of I. persulcatus were examined using the Jackknife test, including mean annual temperature, mean monthly temperature range, isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, elevation, slope, aspect and vegetation. The suitable habitats of I. persulcatus were predicted in China using the maximum entropy model and ArcGIS 10.7 software with the environmental factors. Results　Currently, the highly suitable habitats of I. persulcatus covered an area of 886 600 km2 in China, which were predominantly located in northeastern China. The environmental factors that contributed more than 10% to the distribution of the suitable habitats of I. persulcatus in China included annual temperature variation range (39.1%), the coldest quarterly precipitation (23.2%), and the annual mean precipitation (11.9%). Based on the maximum entropy model, the suitable habitats of I. persulcatus were predicted to show a shrinking tendency towards northeastern China in 2070. Conclusions　The suitable habitat of I. persulcatus strongly correlates with temperature and precipitation, and climate and environmental changes may lead to shrinking of the future suitable habitat of I. persulcatus in China.