Abstract: Objective To explore the application of space?time scan statistics in the early warning of distribution of schisto? some infected Oncomelania hupensis snails. Methods The data of distribution of infected snails in Anhui Province from 2006 to 2012 were collected， and a spatial database was established by ArcGIS 9.3. The prospective spatial?temporal cluster analysis was done by SaTscan 9.1.1 at the village level. Results Four space?time clusters，which were distributed over the Yangtze River and its branch rivers，were detected. Conclusion The space?time scan statistics could detect the distribution of infected snails early， and the space?time clusters found were the key and difficult points of schistosomiasis control in Anhui Province.

Key words: Infected Oncomelania snail； Geographical information systems；Space?time clustering； Early warning

摘要： 目的 目的 探讨时空扫描统计量在感染性钉螺分布探测以及预警中的应用价值。方法 方法 收集2006-2012年安徽省钉 螺分布监测数据， 采用ArcGIS 9.3软件建立村级空间数据库， 再导入SaTScan 9.1.1软件进行前瞻性扫描聚类分析， 确定感 染性钉螺发生的时空热点区域， 并以村作为基本地理单位进行预警。结果 结果 时空聚类分析显示， 2010-2012年安徽省有4 处热点区域为感染性钉螺的预警区域， 分布于长江安徽段及其支流流域。结论 结论 时空扫描统计量能够早期探测到感染性 钉螺分布在时空两个维度的聚集性， 可提供确切的预警信息。探测出的热点区域为安徽省血防工作的重点和难点区域， 提示有必要加大预警区域的防治工作力度。

关键词: 感染性钉螺； 地理信息系统； 时空聚类分析； 预警