Abstract: Objective To explore the association between malaria epidemic situation and some natural and social factors in high?incidence areas of Shandong Province，so as to provide evidences for malaria elimination in these areas. Methods Twenty towns of 10 counties（cities，districts，）in the high incidence areas of malaria in Shandong Province were selected as the study sites，and the residents in the study sites were investigated by questionnaires with one household as a unit，so as to understand the related natural and social factors. In addition，the malaria epidemic data in the study sites from 2006 to 2010 were collected， and the correlation between these factors and the epidemic situation of malaria was analyzed by Spearman rank correlation and multiple stepwise regression. Results The square root of malaria incidence rate（Y）was negatively related to the rate of house? holds using insecticide（X3），and the rate of households using screen doors and windows（X4）（both P ＜0.05），but was positive? ly related to the rate of housing surrounding water environment and exposure ratio（X6）（both P ＜ 0.05）. The regression equa? tion established was Y = 0.032X5 + 0.048X6-0.495，R2 = 0.973. Conclusions Malaria incidence is obviously associated with some natural and social factors. The measures such as clearing the breeding place of mosquito，protecting the exposure popula? tion at nightfall，as well as using door?window screen and repellents correctly，can effectively control malaria.

Key words: Malaria；Risk；Incidence；Natural and social factors；Shandong Province

摘要： 目的探讨山东省疟疾高发区部分自然社会因素与疟疾疫情的关系，为消除疟疾提供依据。方法在山东省 疟疾高发区抽取10个县（市、区）20个乡（镇）作为研究现场，以户为单位进行问卷调查，以了解相关自然和社会因素。此 外，收集2006-2010年研究现场疟疾发病资料，用Spearman等级相关对各自然社会因素与疟疾发病率之间的关系进行分 析，用多元逐步回归建立自然社会因素与发病率关系的回归方程。结果山东省疟疾高发区疟疾平方根发病率（Y）与 杀虫剂户率（X3）和纱门、纱窗户率（X4）呈负相关（P 均＜ 0.05），与住房周围水环境户率（X5）和暴露率（X6）呈正相关（P ＜ 0.05），建立的多元逐步回归方程为：Y = 0.032X5+ 0.048X6- 0.495，R2= 0.973。结论疟疾发病与多种自然社会因素存在 明显的相关性。清除住房周围蚊媒孳生地，做好傍晚暴露人群的个人防护，正确使用纱门纱窗和驱避剂，是当前行之有 效的疟疾防控策略。

关键词: 疟疾；风险；发病率；自然社会因素；山东省