关键词: 钉螺, 聚集区, 时空扫描, 核密度分析

Abstract: Objective　To investigate the spatio?temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in three cities of Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou along the Taihu Lake region, so as to provide technical supports for establishing a sensitive and highly effective surveillance and forecast system for schistosomiasis. Methods　Snail distribution data were collected from Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities from 1950 to 2018, and the changing trend for snail habitats were described over years. In addition, the clusters of snail habitats were detected using Kernel density analysis and SaTScan space?time scan analysis. Results　The number of snail habitats appeared a single?peak distribution in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities from 1950 to 2018, which peaked in 1970 and then declined rapidly. There were 62.68% of snail habitats eliminated within 10 years after identification, of which 38.24% were eliminated at the year of identification. Kernel density analysis and SaTScan space?time scan analysis revealed that high?density clusters of snail habitats were mainly distributed in Kunshan City, Wuzhong District and Xiangcheng District from 1970 to 1980, and in Yixing City in 1990; since then, the clusters gradually shrank, and overall appeared a move from northeast to west of Taihu Lake. A total of 4 new clusters were detected after 1970, as revealed by space?time scanning of snail habitats. In current snail habitats, emerging snail habitats are mainly identified in Huqiu District (Dongzhu Town), Wuzhong District (Guangfu Town), Taicang City (Shaxi Town) and Jintan District, and re?emerging snail habitats are scattered in 7 districts. Conclusions　The distribution of snail habitats are spatio?temporal aggregation in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities. The monitoring and prediction of emerging and re?emerging snail habitats are the key points in the future.

Key words: Oncomelania hupensis, Cluster, Space?time scan, Kernel density analysis