### Potential suitable habitats of Haemaphysalis longicornis in China under different climatic patterns

CUN De⁃Jiao1△, WANG Qiang1△, YAO Xiao⁃Yan1, MA Ben1, ZHANG Yi2, LI Lan⁃Hua1*

1. 1 School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, China; 2 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China
• Online:2021-08-30 Published:2021-08-30

### 不同气候模式下我国长角血蜱潜在适生区预测

1. 1 潍坊医学院公共卫生学院（潍坊261053）；2 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所
• 作者简介:寸得娇，女，硕士研究生，研究方向：传染病媒介生物 王强，男，讲师，研究方向：空间流行病学
• 基金资助:
上海市第五轮公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科项目（GWV⁃10.1⁃XK13）；国家自然科学基金（81902095）；山东省自然科学基金（ZR2019MH093）；科技基础资源调查专项（2017FY101203）；山东省高等学校青创人才引育计划（鲁教2019⁃6⁃156）

Abstract: Objective　To evaluate the impact of environmental and climatic factors on the distribution of suitable habitats of Haemaphysalis longicornis, and to predict the potential distribution of H. longicornis under different climate patterns in China. Methods　Data pertaining to the distribution of H. longicornis were retrieved from public literatures. The effects of 19 climatic factors (annual mean temperature, annual mean temperature difference between day and night, isothermality, standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest season, mean temperature of the driest season, mean temperature of the warmest season, mean temperature of the coldest season, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, coefficient of variance of precipitation, precipitation of the wettest season, precipitation of the driest season, precipitation of the warmest season and precipitation of the coldest season) and 4 environmental factors (elevation, slope, slope aspect and vegetation coverage) on the potential distribution of H. longicornis were assessed using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on the H. longicornis distribution data and climatic and environmental data, and the potential distribution of H. longicornis was predicted under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Results　Among the environmental and climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. longicornis in China, the factors contributing more than 10% to the distribution of H. longicornis mainly included the precipitation of the driest month (26.0%), annual mean temperature (11.2%), annual mean precipitation (10.0%) and elevation (24.2%). Under the current climate pattern, the high⁃, medium⁃ and low⁃suitable habitats of H. longicornis are 1 231 900, 1 696 200 km2 and 1 854 400 km2 in China, respectively. The distribution of H. longicornis increased by 336 100 km2 and 367 300 km2 in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 2.6 emissions scenario, and increased by 381 000 km2 and 358 000 km2 in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario in China, respectively. Conclusions　Climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature and elevation, greatly affect the distribution of H. longicornis in China, and the suitable habitats of H. longicornis may expand in China under different climate patterns in future.

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