Abstract:

 Objective To discuss whether the acute schistosomiasis has spatial autocorrelation in
the Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, and provide the methodology for using the da-
to effectively. Methods The regional map of Guichi District was overlaid with the spatial positions
of 207 villages to produce the village-based map. The data of acute schistosomiasis from 2001 to
2006 collected through the method of retrospective survey were treated as attribute database, and
matched with the village positions to generate the database for spatial autocorrelation analysis. Joint
count statistics was selected to calculate and test spatial autocorrelation of acute schistosomiasis.
Results There were 83 acute cases in the Guichi District from 2001 t0 2006, and the number of
cases in each year were 13, 23, 13, 14, 14 and 6 in turn. The cases in male were more than that in
female, the average age was 23. 73 years, and the time of occurrence was focused on the months
from July to October. Spatial autocorrelation existed from 2001 t0 2003 (joint count statistics for B-
B were l. 43,1. 96 and l. 03 respectively, P values were aH O. Ol), but disappeared from 2004 to
2006 (joint count statistics for B-B were 0. 69,0. 48 and 0. 10, P values were 0. 08,0. 25 and 0. 29
respectively). Conclusion Acute schistosomiasis shows a change from concentration to scatter,
which should be paid enough attention to at any moment to avoid the sudden increase of endemic.

摘要：

]  目的探讨安徽省池州市贵池区的急性血吸虫病（急血）病例是否存在空间自相关，为有效利用资料提供方法学依据。方法将贵池区区划图与207个村的空间位置进行叠加，生成村级基础地图。通过回顾性调查方法，收集2001～2006年的急血病例资料，将其作为属性数据库与村的空间位置进行匹配，生成空间自相关分析的急血病例数据库。选用连接计数统计量测量并检验急血病例的空间自相关性。结果2001—2006年全区共有急血病例83例，各年度病例数依次为13、23、13、14、14、6例。男性发病多于女性，平均发病年龄为23. 73岁，发病时间集中在7～10月。急血病例在2001～2003年存在正空间自相关(B-B连接计数依次为1.43、1.96和1.03，P值均为0.01)，而在2004～2006年不存在空间自相关(B-B逢接计数依次为o．69、0.48和0.10，尸值分别为0.08、0.25和o．29)。结论贵池区急血病例的发生地由集中向分散变化，必须时刻警惕以防止疫情的突然上升。

关键词: 血吸虫病；流行病学；空间统计学；空间自相关