Abstract:

Objective To predict the colonization risk and potential geographical distribution of Biomphalaria glabrata in the Mainland China based on the past period temperature data. Methods The survival extreme high temperatures and low temperatures of B. glabrata eggs， young and adult B. glabrata snails and the average effective accumulated temperature of generation development were determined in laboratory conditions. The temperature data in January and July from 1955 to 2010 were collected from the national meteorological monitoring sites in the southern part of China， including Chongqing， Zhejiang， Yunnan， Sichuan， Jiangxi， Hunan， Hainan， Guizhou， Guangdong， Guangxi and Fujian provinces （11 provinces）. A database of ambient temperature related to B. glabrata was established based on the Geographic Information System （GIS）. The colonization risk and potential geographical distribution of B. glabrata in the southern part of China were analyzed and predicted by ArcGIS 10.1 software. Results The half lethal low temperatures of B. glabrata eggs， young and adult B. glabrata snails were 6.80， 6.34 ℃ and 6.60 ℃ respectively； the half lethal high temperatures of B. glabrata eggs， young and adult B. glabrata snails were 35.99， 33.59 ℃ and 32.20 ℃, respectively. The highest and lowest temperatures of laying eggs were 31.75 ℃ and 9.91 ℃, respectively； the average effective accumulated temperature of generation development was （197 0.07 ± 455.10） days?degree. The GIS overlay analysis of the half lethal low and high temperatures of B. glabrata showed that the local temperature conditions in all Hainan and part regions in Yunnan， Guangxi， Guangdong and Fujian were conformed to the survival temperature of B. glabrata snails. The regions， where the average effective accumulated temperature was more than the average effective accumulated temperature of generation development of B. glabrata， were Guangdong and Hainan， and part regions of other 9 provinces. The overlay analysis of GIS maps of the survival extreme high temperatures and low temperatures of B. glabrata with the GIS map of the average effective accumulated temperature of generation development in 2010 showed that the whole region of Hainan and part regions of Guangdong， Guangxi， Yunnan and Fujian were potential geographical distribution regions of colonization risk of B. glabrata. The overlay analysis of GIS maps of the survival extreme high temperatures and low temperatures of B. glabrata with the GIS map of the average effective accumulated temperature of generation development from 1955 to 2010 showed that the potential geographical distribution regions of B. glabrata was expanding from the whole region of Hainan and part regions of Guangdong in 1955 to the whole region of Hainan and part regions of Guangdong， Guangxi， Yunnan and Fujian in 2010. Conclusions If B. glabrata snails were introduced into the Mainland China， the potential geographical distribution regions would be the whole region of Hainan and part regions of Guangdong， Guangxi and Yunnan. The changes of risk range and risk intensity present the trends of expanding and increasing from the south to the north gradually.

Key words: Schistosoma mansoni； Biomphalaria glabrata； Colonization； Potential geographical distribution； Geographic Information System （GIS）； Mainland China

摘要：

目的 基于螺的生态学数据和气象站点的温度资料，预测曼氏血吸虫中间宿主光滑双脐螺在中国大陆定殖风险及潜在地理分布。方法 采用生态学方法实验室测定光滑双脐螺螺卵、幼螺及成螺生存极值高温、极值低温、发育起点温度和世代发育有效积温；采集中国大陆南方11个省（直辖市、自治区）国家级气象站点1955-2010年温度资料，建立光滑双脐螺环境温度相关基础数据库，并基于地理信息系统（GIS）空间分析技术，预测光滑双脐螺在中国大陆定殖风险及潜在空间分布区域。结果 光滑双脐螺螺卵、幼螺及成螺的半数致死低温分别为6.80、6.34 ℃和6.60 ℃，半数致死高温分别为35.99、33.59 ℃和32.20 ℃，发育起点温度为7.16 ℃，平均世代发育有效积温为（1 970.07 ± 455.10）日·度。结合我国南方229个国家级气象站点温度资料的GIS分析显示，中国大陆云南省、广西壮族自治区、广东省和福建省的局部地区以及海南全省的气温条件已能满足光滑双脐螺生存的温度要求；其中广东少部分地区和整个海南省区，甚至可完成3个世代以上发育繁殖，可成为该螺入侵后的高风险潜在地理分布区域；并且随着全球气候变暖，中国大陆适合光滑双脐螺定殖的潜在地理分布区域有由南向北扩展的趋势。结论 我国海南、广东、广西、云南、福建等地区已具备适合光滑双脐螺定殖的温度条件，且此区域呈由南向北扩展的趋势。因此，中国大陆存在光滑双脐螺传入后的定殖风险。

关键词: 曼氏血吸虫；光滑双脐螺；定殖；潜在地理分布；地理信息系统；中国大陆