Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 7-.

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Epidemiological trends of schistosomiasis in Poyang County of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2020 based on the Joinpoint regression model

WU Xin⁃hua1, WU Jun1, XU Ren⁃mei1, XIONG Ying1, CHEN Zhe2*   

  1. 1 Poyang County Station of Schistosomiasis Control, Shangrao, Jiangxi 333100, China; 2 Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases Control, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Schistosomiasis Prevention and Control, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330000, China
  • Online:2022-02-28 Published:2022-02-28

基于Joinpoint回归模型的2004—2020年江西省鄱阳县血吸虫病流行趋势分析

吴新华1,吴君1,徐仁美1,熊瑛1,陈喆2*   

  1. 1 江西省上饶市鄱阳县血吸虫病防治站(江西 上饶333100);2 江西省寄生虫病防治研究所、江西省血吸虫病预防与控制重点实验室(江西 南昌330000)
  • 作者简介:吴新华,男,本科,副主任医师。研究方向:血吸虫病控制
  • 基金资助:
    江西省医学领先学科建设项目(2021030107);江西省重点实验室计划项目(20192BCD40006);江西省卫生健康委员会科技计划项目(20204870)

Abstract: Objective To analyze the dynamic changes of schistosomiasis in Poyang County of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2020, so as to provide insight into the development of the schistosomiasis elimination strategy. Methods Schistosomiasis control data were captured from Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and the epidemiological data of schistosomiasis were collected from national schistosomiasis surveillance sites in Poyang County from 2005 to 2020. The endemic status of schistosomiasis was analyzed in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and a Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to investigate the trends of schistosomiasis in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020. Results The sero⁃prevalence and egg⁃prevalence of human Schistosoma japonicum infections reduced from 24.39% (24 976/102 397) and 4.53% (259/5 721) in 2004 to 5.37% (2 421/45 100) [annual percent change (APC) = average annual percent change (AAPC) = -8.64% ] and 0 (0/3 963) in 2020 (APC = AAPC = -32.07%) in Poyang County, and the trends were both significant (both P < 0.01). The sero⁃prevalence of S. japonicum infections reduced from 1.21% (294/24 332) in bovines in 2013 to 0.58% (35/5 999) in 2020 in Poyang County, with one turning point (AAPC = -8.20%,P > 0.05). There were no townships or villages with emerging snail habitats in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020, and there were three turning points of trend in the proportion of snail areas detected in total snail areas (AAPC = -2.30%,P > 0.01).The sero⁃prevalence and adjusted prevalence of S. japonicum infections reduced from 60.82% (742/1 220) and 10.16% (124/1 220) in local residents in 2005 to 5.73% (70/1 221) and 0 in 2020 in national schistosomiasis surveillance sites of Poyang County, and the trends for sero⁃prevalence (APC = AAPC = 17.47%, P < 0.01) and adjusted prevalence of S. japonicum infections (APC = AAPC = -44.92%, P < 0.01) were both statistically significant. S. japonicum infections were identified in 10 (2005) and 2 local livestock (2007), with prevalence of 10.00% (10/100) and 13.33% (2/15), respectively, and S. japonicum infections were detected in snails in 2008 and 2009; however, no positive samples of mixed O. hupensis were detected by loop⁃mediated isothermal amplification. Conclusions The endemic situation of schistosomiasis control had remarkably reduced in Poyang County from 2004 to 2020; however, there are still challenges for consolidating schistosomiasis control achievements and even elimination of schistosomiasis.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Endemic situation, Joinpoint regression model, Poyang County

摘要: 目的 分析2004—2020年江西省鄱阳县血吸虫病疫情动态变化,为制定消除血吸虫病策略提供参考依据。方法 收集2004—2020年江西省鄱阳县血吸虫病防治工作资料及2005—2020年国家血吸虫病监测点数据,建立数据库并进行分析。采用Joinpoint回归模型对鄱阳县血吸虫病流行趋势进行分析。结果 2004—2020年鄱阳县人群血吸虫病血清学与病原学检查阳性率分别从24.39%(24 976/102 397)和4.53%(259/5 721)下降至5.37%(2 421/45 100)[年度变化百分比(APC) =平均年度变化百分比(AAPC) = -8.64%]和0(0/3 963)(APC = AAPC = -32.07%),变化趋势均有统计学意义(P均< 0.01)。2013—2020年鄱阳县耕牛血吸虫病血清学检测阳性率从1.21%(294/24 332)下降至0.58%(35/5 999),变化趋势有1个趋势变化连接点(AAPC = -8.20%,P > 0.05)。2004—2020年鄱阳县未曾新查出有螺乡与有螺村,查出有螺面积占查螺总面积比例有3个趋势变化连接点(AAPC = -2.30%,P > 0.01)。2005—2020年,鄱阳县国家血吸虫病监测点本地居民血检阳性率及校正感染率分别从60.82%(742/1 220)和10.16%(124/1 220)降至5.73%(70/1 221)和0,血检阳性率(APC = AAPC = 17.47%,P < 0.01)与校正感染率(APC = AAPC = -44.92%,P < 0.01)变化趋势均有统计学意义;仅2005、2007年在本地家畜中分别查出10头和2头血吸虫感染牛,感染率分别为10.00%(10/100)和13.33%(2/15);仅于2008—2009年发现血吸虫感染性钉螺,环介导等温扩增技术检测未发现血吸虫核酸阳性混合钉螺样本。结论 2004—2020年鄱阳县血吸虫病疫情下降趋势显著,但巩固防治成果及消除血吸虫病仍面临挑战。

关键词: 血吸虫病, 疫情, Joinpoint回归模型, 鄱阳县

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