Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 267-.

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Effects of climate changes on the distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus in China 

YAO Xiao⁃Yan1△, TIAN Na1△, MA Ben1, ZHANG Yi2, CUN De⁃Jiao1, LI Lan⁃Hua1*   

  1. 1 School of Public Health, Weifang Medical University, Weifang 261053, China; 2 National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China
  • Online:2021-07-09 Published:2021-07-09

气候变化对我国微小扇头蜱分布区的影响

姚晓燕1△,田娜1△,马奔1,张仪2,寸得娇1,李兰花1*   

  1. 1 潍坊医学院公共卫生学院(潍坊 261053);2 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所
  • 作者简介:姚晓燕,女,硕士研究生。研究方向:传染病媒介生物 田娜,女,硕士,讲师。研究方向:空间流行病学
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(81902095);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2019MH093);科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101203);上海市第五轮公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科项目(GWV⁃10.1⁃XK13)

Abstract: Objective To identify the environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus in China, and to examine the impact of climate changes on the distribution of R. microplus in China. Methods The national and international publications pertaining to the geographical distribution of R. microplus in China were retrieved, and the geographical location was extracted. The suitable habitats of R. microplus and the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of R. microplus were predicted in China based on the geographical data and environmental variables using the ArcGIS 10.7 software and the maximum entropy model. Results Among the main climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of R. microplus in China, the factors contributing more than 10% to the suitable habitats of R. microplus mainly include the annual mean precipitation (38.2%), the average temperature of the coldest quarter (28.4%) and the precipitation of the driest month (14.2%). The current suitable habitats of R. microplus were mainly found in southern China, and the high⁃, medium⁃ and low⁃suitable areas accounted for 8.6%, 13.1% and 10.5% of the total land area of China, respectively. The suitable habitats of R. microplus were predicted to increase by 399 800 km2 in China using the maximum entropy model under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario in 2070, and the emerging suitable habitats were mainly distributed in Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Hebei Province, Shaanxi Province, Liaoning Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shandong Province, Sichuan Province and Tibeten Autonomous Region. In addition, the suitable habitats of R. microplus were predicted to show an overall expansion towards northward from present to 2070. Conclusions Climate changes affect the distribution of suitable habitats of R. microplus in China, and annual mean precipitation may be a key factor affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of R. microplus.

Key words: Rhipicephalus microplus, Maximum entropy model, Suitable habitat, Climate change

摘要: 目的 分析影响我国微小扇头蜱地理分布的环境因子及微小扇头蜱在我国的潜在适生区,分析气候变化对我国微小扇头蜱分布的影响。方法 检索我国微小扇头蜱地理分布相关的国内外公开发表文献,提取地理位置信息。结合环境因子,应用ArcGIS 10.7软件和最大熵模型,对微小扇头蜱在我国的适生区分布和影响其分布的主导环境因子进行预测。结果 影响我国微小扇头蜱地理分布的主要气候因子中,贡献率> 10%的因子主要包括年平均降水量(38.2%)、最冷季度平均温度(28.4%)和最干月降水量(14.2%)。微小扇头蜱主要分布于我国南方地区,高、中、低适生区面积分别占我国国土面积的8.6%、13.1%和10.5%。最大熵模型预测结果表明,在2070年RCP 4.5气候条件下,全国微小扇头蜱适生区面积将增加39.98万km2,新增适生区主要位于甘肃省、宁夏回族自治区、青海省、河北省、陕西省、辽宁省、内蒙古自治区、山东省、四川省、西藏自治区等局部地区。质心转移结果表明,从当前到2070年,全国微小扇头蜱适生区整体向北方扩增。结论 气候变化影响我国微小扇头蜱分布区,年平均降水量可能是影响其分布的关键因素之一。

关键词: 微小扇头蜱, 最大熵模型, 适生区, 气候变化

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