Abstract: Objective　To create a model based on meteorological data to predict the regions at risk of schistosomiasis during the flood season, so as to provide insights into the surveillance and forecast of schistosomiasis. Methods　An interactive schistosomiasis forecast system was created using the open?access R software. The schistosomiasis risk index was used as a basic parameter, and the species distribution model of Oncomelania hupensis snails was generated according to the cumulative rainfall and temperature to predict the probability of O. hupensis snail distribution, so as to identify the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission during the flood season. Results　The framework of the web page was built using the Shiny package in the R program, and an interactive and visualization system was successfully created to predict the distribution of O. hupensis snails, containing O. hupensis snail surveillance site database, meteorological and environmental data. In this system, the snail distribution area may be displayed and the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission may be predicted using the species distribution model. This predictive system may rapidly generate the schistosomiasis transmission risk map, which is simple and easy to perform. In addition, the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission were predicted to be concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the flood period. Conclusions　A schistosomiasis forecast system is successfully created, which is accurate and rapid to utilize meteorological data to predict the regions at risk of schistosomiasis transmission during the flood period.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Oncomelania snail, Flood, Forecast system, Transmission index, Species distribution model

摘要： ［摘要］　目的　利用气象数据建立模型，预测洪水季节血吸虫病风险区域，为血吸虫病监测预警提供参考。方法　基于开源R软件，建立交互式血吸虫病预警系统。以血吸虫传播指数为基础参数，根据累积降雨量及气温数据拟合钉螺物种分布模型，预测钉螺分布概率，判断洪涝灾害期间血吸虫病传播风险区域。结果　基于R软件Shiny包构建网页框架，成功建立了交互式、可视化钉螺分布预测系统，内含钉螺监测点数据及气象、环境数据。通过物种分布模型可展示钉螺分布区域，并预测血吸虫病传播风险区域。该预警系统可快速生成血吸虫病传播风险图，操作简单、便捷。通过预测钉螺分布数据显示，洪涝灾害期间血吸虫病传播风险区主要集中在长江中下游区域。结论　本研究建立的血吸虫病预警系统能准确、快速利用气象资料预测洪涝灾害期间血吸虫病流行风险区域。

关键词: 血吸虫病, 钉螺, 洪水, 预警系统, 传播指数, 物种分布模型