Chin J Schisto Control ›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 404-409,459.

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Epidemiologic features and space-time clustering analysis of human schistosomiasis in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2016

ZHU Hong*| WU Jia-li| TU Zu-wu| LI Bo| XIAO Ying| XIA Jing| TANG Li| ZHOU Xiao-rong| TU Zhen   

  1. Hubei Provincial Academy of Preventive Medicine| Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention| Wuhan 430079| China
  • Online:2018-10-08 Published:2018-10-09

2015-2016年湖北省人群血吸虫病病情流行特征及时空聚集性分析

朱红*|吴家利|涂祖武|李博|肖瑛|夏菁|唐丽|周晓蓉|涂珍   

  1. 湖北省预防医学科学院、湖北省疾病预防控制中心(武汉430079)
  • 作者简介:朱红|女|副主任医师。研究方向:血吸虫病流行病学
  • 基金资助:
    2017-2018年度湖北省卫生计生委血防专项(WJ2017X013);湖北省科技计划项目(2018CFC896)

Abstract: Objective To investigate the space?time patterns of schistosomiasis after the stage of transmission controlled in Hubei Province, so as to provide the reference for precise controlling. Methods The data of human schistosomiasis cases in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2016 and basic information of human schistosomiasis cases and serum antibody titer of human schistosomiasis cases in 2016 were collected and analyzed. The spatial clustering of human schistosomiasis was detected by the Flexible spatial scan statistics and Kulldorff circular scan statistic, respectively. Results Totally 64 819 serological positive cases from 51 counties and 1 504 stool hatching positive cases from 17 endemic counties were reported in Hubei Province in 2015, and 39 365 serological positive cases were reported from 48 counties in 2016. All of them were identified as the research objects. No stool hatching positive cases were reported from the routine work in the whole province in 2016. There were 1 603 cases of the highest antibody titer (1∶80 or more), with the proportion of 4.07%. According to the results of Kulldorff spatial clustering analysis, there were eight and six spatial clustering areas in the distribution of serological positive cases and stool hatching positive cases in 2015, respectively. The numbers of spatial clustering areas in the distribution of serological positive cases and the cases of the highest antibody titer (1∶80 or more) were eight and five in 2016, respectively. According to the results of Flexible spatial clustering analysis, there were three and two spatial clustering areas in the distribution of serological positive cases and stool hatching positive cases in 2015, respectively. The numbers of spatial clustering areas in the distribution of serological positive cases and the cases of highest antibody titer (1∶80 or more) were two and one in 2016, respectively. Conclusions The distribution of human schistosomiasis cases is not balanced, and there is spatial clustering in Hubei Province. So the key area for prevention and control is on the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the future.

Key words: Schistosomiasis; Space epidemiology; Flexible scan statistics; Kulldorff circular scan statistic; Hubei Province

摘要: 目的 掌握湖北省血吸虫病传播控制后人群病情时空分布特征,为精准防治提供科学依据。方法 收集2015-2016年湖北省人群血吸虫病病情数据和流行区上报的2016年人群病例基本信息及血清抗体效价数据并分析。采用Flexible空间扫描统计量和Kulldorff 圆形扫描统计量探测人群血吸虫病疫情空间聚集性。结果 2015年湖北省51个县(区、市)报告了64 819例血吸虫病血清学检测阳性病例,17个县(区、市)报告了1 504例粪检阳性病例;2016年48个县(区、市)报告了39 365例血检阳性病例,未报告粪检阳性病例。血清抗血吸虫抗体最高效价≥ 1∶80者共1 603例,占总数的4.07%。Kulldorff 圆形扫描统计量空间聚集性分析显示,2015年湖北省血吸虫病血检和粪检阳性病例的空间聚集性区域分别为8个和6个,2016年血检阳性和血清抗血吸虫抗体最高效价≥ 1∶80的病例空间聚集性区域分别为8个和5个。Flexible空间扫描统计量空间聚集性分析显示,2015年湖北省血吸虫病血检和粪检阳性病例的空间聚集性区域分别为3个和2个,血检阳性和血清抗血吸虫抗体最高效价≥ 1∶80病例的空间聚集性区域分别为2个和1个。结论 湖北省人群血吸虫病病例分布存在空间聚集性,以长江中下游区域为主,该区域是今后湖北省血吸虫病防控的重点区域。

关键词: 血吸虫病;空间流行病学;Flexible空间扫描统计量;Kulldorff 圆形扫描统计量;湖北省

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