Chin J Schisto Control ›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 445-448.

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Time characteristics of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province

MAO Xiang-hua*| DENG Yan| DONG Ying| CHEN Meng-ni| XU Yan-chun| WEI Chun| TANG Ye-rong   

  1. Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases| Puer 665099| China
  • Online:2017-08-28 Published:2017-08-28

云南省输入性疟疾病例时间分布特征分析

毛祥华*|邓艳|董莹|陈梦妮|徐艳春|魏春|唐烨榕   

  1. 云南省寄生虫病防治所|云南省疟疾研究中心(普洱665099)
  • 作者简介:毛祥华|男|本科|主管医师。研究方向:寄生虫及虫媒性疾病

Abstract: Objective To investigate the time distribution characteristics and the epidemic trends of imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province. Methods The malaria case records and epidemiological history data of Yunnan Province were collected, and the local infection cases were excluded. The data were statistical analyzed. Results The imported malaria cases had a significantly seasonal periodicity (Q = 26.574, P < 0.05) and epidemic trends (Q = 35.487, P < 0.05). The imported peak was in May, while February was the lowest month of imported cases, and the difference was significant (Z = -2.619, P < 0.05). The simple seasonal prediction model was the best model (R2 = 0.677, BIC = 4.867) for forecast while the residual sequence was white noise (Q = 14.226, P > 0.05). By using the model to predict the cases in January, February and March of 2016, the number (95% CI) were 29 (7-50), 22 (0-44) and 31 (8-54), and the actual number of imported malaria cases were 29, 24 and 38 cases respectively and all cases were included in the 95% CI. Conclusion The imported malaria cases in Yunnan Province had a significantly seasonal periodicity and epidemic trends, and the established model has good prediction on the recent cases.

Key words: Malaria; Imported; Time characteristic; Yunnan Province

摘要: 目的 研究云南省输入性疟疾病例的时间分布特征,掌握输入性疟疾的流行动态。 方法 收集疟疾个案调查表和流行病学资料,剔除本地感染病例,整理归纳并进行统计分析。 结果 云南省输入性疟疾病例具有季节周期性(Q = 26.574,P < 0.05)和趋势性(Q = 35.487,P < 0.05),输入高峰为5月,低谷为2月,输入病例数差异有统计学意义(Z = -2.619,P < 0.05)。简单季节性模型为最佳分析预测模型(R2 = 0.677,BIC= 4.867),残差序列为白噪声(Q = 14.226,P > 0.05)。运用模型对2016年1月、2月、3月的输入性疟疾病例数进行预测,预测值(95% CI)分别为29(7~50)、22(0~44)和31(8~54),实际发病数为29、24和38例,均在预测值的95% CI内。 结论 云南省输入性疟疾病例具有季节性和趋势性特征,所构建模型对近期病例有较好的预测效果。

关键词: 疟疾;输入性;时间特征;云南省

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