Chin J Schisto Control ›› 2014, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 245-.

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Space-time clustering analysis of acute schistosome infections in marshland and lake areas in five provinces

ZHANG Li-juan|XU Zhi-min| ZHENG Hao|LI Shi-zhu| XU Jing|ZHU Rong| GUO Jia-gang*   

  1. National Institute of Parasitic Diseases|Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention|WHO Collaborating Centre for Malaria| Schistosomiasis and Filariasis|Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention|Key Laboratory of Parastite and Vector Biology| Ministry of Health| Shanghai 200025|China
  • Online:2014-06-15 Published:2014-08-11
  • Contact: GUO Jia?gang

湖区5省急性血吸虫感染时空聚集性分析

张利娟|徐志敏|郑浩|李石柱|许静|朱蓉|郭家钢*   

  1. 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所| 世界卫 生组织疟疾、 血吸虫病和丝虫病合作中心| 卫生部寄生 虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室 (上海 200025)
  • 通讯作者: 郭家钢
  • 作者简介:张利娟| 女| 硕士| 助理研究员。研究方向: 血吸虫病流行病学
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金 (81101280); 国家传染病重大专项 (2012ZX10004220、 2008ZX10004 ? 011、 2012ZX10004 ? 201);上 海 市 公 共 卫 生 海 外 留 学 基 金 (GWHW201216); 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预 防控制所监测预警团队建设项目

Abstract: Objective To analyze the time and space aggregation of acute schistosome infections in marshland and lake areas in five provinces(Jiangsu,Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei and Hunan province)from 2005 to 2012,so as to provide the evidence for es? tablishing control strategies and taking effective control measures. Methods The data of patients with acute schistosome infection in marshland and lake areas in five provinces from 2005 to 2012 were collected and analyzed with the concentration ratio and circu? lar distribution methods for the epidemic season features and time aggregation of the infection,and with the spatial autocorrelation analysis for the space aggregation of the infected cases. Results According to the concentration ratio,the occurrence of acute schistosome infection had strong seasonality,and the concentration ratio was 0.758;according to the circular distribution method, the peak day of acute schistosome infections was 10th,August. The spatial analysis suggested that the infected cases highly gath? ered around Poyang Lake,Dongting Lake and Yangtze River Basin in 23 counties of the five provinces,and the result of spatial au? tocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial autocorrelation index I was 0.16(P = 0.01) . Conclusion The occurrence of acute schistosome infections in lake regions of the 5 provinces shows strong seasonality and space aggregation,therefore we can bring the control mark forward, and take targeted prevention and control measures in high aggregation areas of acute schistosomiasis.

Key words: Acute schistosomiasis;Space?time clustering;Marshland and lake region

摘要: 目的 目的 分析2005-2012年湖区5省急性血吸虫感染 (急感) 发病时间及空间聚集性, 为制定防治策略和采取有效 控制措施提供科学依据。方法 方法 收集2005-2012年湖区5省急感病例基本信息, 采用集中度和圆形分布法对急感的流行 季节及时间聚集性进行分析, 并采用空间自相关分析对病例的空间聚集性进行分析。结果 结果 急感发病具有较强的季节 性, 集中度为0.758, 其发病高峰日为8月10日左右。急感病例分布图提示急感病例在空间上高度聚集于鄱阳湖、 洞庭湖及 长江流域周边5省的23个县, 空间自相关分析结果显示2005-2012年间急感空间自相关系数I = 0.16 (P = 0.01)。结论 结论 湖 区5省急感发病时间上具有较强的季节性, 空间上呈聚集状态, 可据此将防控关口前移, 在高聚集区开展有针对性的防控 措施。

关键词: 急性血吸虫病; 时空聚集性; 湖沼型地区

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