Abstract: Objective Objective To explore the relationship between the schistosome infection rate of O. hupensis snails and the cli? mate factors in endemic areas of schistosomiasis，so as to provide the evidence for improving the snail control. Methods Methods The snail and climate data of 18 counties in Hubei Province in 2009 were collected to obtain the infection rate of O. hupensis snails and to fit the spatial regression models. Results Results The multiple linear regression model showed that the residuals were autocorre? lated（Moran’ s I = 0.182 8，P < 0.01）and the spatial regression was necessary. The spatial lag model（SLM）was selected ac? cording to the results obtained by Lagrange multiplier statistics. The spatial parameter ρ of SLM was significant（ρ= - 0.151 5， P < 0.05）and the infection rate of O. hupensis snails was positively correlated with the annual average temperature（P < 0.05） . The correlations between the infection rate of O. hupensis and the annual average relative humidity，precipitation and sunshine duration were not significant respectively（all P > 0.05） . Conclusions Conclusions The spatial regression models could be well applied in the analysis of the relationship between the O. hupensis snails and climate factors. The annual average temperature is the prima? ry climate factor influencing the infection of O. hupensis snails.

Key words: Oncomelania hupensis； Schistosomiasis； Climate；Spatial autocorrelation；Spatial regression analysis

摘要： 目的 目的 探讨血吸虫病流行区钉螺感染率与气候因素之间的关系， 为控制钉螺提供科学依据。 方法 方法 收集2009 年湖北省18个县 （市、 区） 的螺情资料和气候因素资料， 计算钉螺感染率和相关气候指标并拟合空间回归模型。 结果 结果 多重线性回归分析结果显示， 模型残差具有空间自相关性 （Moran’ s I = 0.182 8， P < 0.01）， 需拟合空间回归模型。根据空 间依赖性检验结果， 选择拟合空间滞后模型 （SLM）。经检验， SLM模型拟合的空间回归系数有统计学意义 （ρ = - 0.151 5， P < 0.05）， 拟合优度较好。SLM模型结果显示， 钉螺感染率与年均温度呈正相关， 且回归系数有统计学意义 （P < 0.05）， 与年均相对湿度、 年均降雨量及年均日照时数无相关关系 （P 均 > 0.05）。结论 结论 空间回归分析在研究钉螺与气候因素 的关系时分析效果较好。影响钉螺感染率的主要气候因素是年均温度。

关键词: 钉螺； 血吸虫病； 气候； 空间自相关； 空间回归分析