关键词: 血吸虫病, 风险评估, 指标体系, 德尔菲法, 湖北省

Abstract: Objective　To establish an indicator system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk after transmission interruption in Hubei Province, so as to provide insights into the precise control of schistosomiasis. Methods　The indicator system was preliminarily established based on data collection, literature review, expert interviews. Two rounds of expert consultation were performed. The indicator system was screened based on the importance, operability, sensitivity and comprehensive score of the indicators, and the weights of each indicator were calculated. The credibility of the Delphi method was evaluated by calculating the active coefficient of the experts, degree of expert authority and coordination levels of experts’ opinions. Results　An indicator system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk was preliminarily established, including 3 primary indicators, 12 secondary indicators and 44 tertiary indicators. A Delphi consultation was performed among 17 experts participating in schistosomiasis control, management and research. Following two rounds of consultation, a risk assessment indicator system was finally constructed, including 3 primary indicators, 10 secondary indicators and 35 tertiary indicators. Among the primary indicators, the variable with the highest normalized weight was the current status of schistosomiasis (0.420 2), followed by social factors (0.397 3) and natural environments (0.182 5). Among the secondary indicators, those with high combined weights included risk monitoring (0.142 3), current snail status (0.140 1), and current prevalence of human and livestock infections (0.137 8). Among the tertiary indicators, those with high combined weights included the positive rate of wild feces (0.049 8), the prevalence of snail infections (0.047 4), and the area of snail habitats submerged by floods (0.046 8). During the two⁃round consultation, the active coefficients of the experts were 85.00% and 100.00%, the degree of expert authority was both 0.75 and greater, and the coordination levels of experts’opinions were 0.405 to 0.521 and 0.592 to 0.695 (all P values < 0.05). Conclusion　An indicator system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk is successfully established after transmission interruption in Hubei Province based on the Delphi method, which provides insights into the identification of the schistosomiasis transmission risk and the targets for schistosomiasis control in Hubei Province.

Key words: Schistosomiasis, Risk assessment, Indicator system, Delphi method, Hubei Province